Let's go back 15 years in time. It's 2008. Radios are blasting Low by Flo Rida and T-Pain and The Dark Knight is released. Bitcoin came out in 2009. Think of how much has changed just in your own life since then. Then let's quickly run through what's happened in those 15 years: we've seen the emergence of such major developments as FATCA, AEOI/CRS, BEPS, DAC6, new EU AML Directives, and so on. Like it or not but EU, US, OECD, FATF, and their friends set the tone for what happens across the world. Even if power shifts to BRICS or whatever your preferred new world order is, their motivations are the same: tax revenues and control.
So if we look at the next 15 years, expect privacy to erode further. Plan for a future where your every movement is tracked and knowable at the press of a button by a tax authority. The barriers between taxation and immigration are coming undone.
If the immigration system in UK detects you haven't left the country after X days, the HMRC might determine you're tax resident.
We'll also see automation around CRS start taking off. There are already talks about central bank account registries, which could potentially remove the need even for CRS. A tax authority could just search your name in a database and find all bank accounts you have with all banks all over the world.
If your plan for the next 15 years include anything that doesn't pass close inspection, I wouldn't expect it to work. Maybe it will. Maybe it won't.
15 years from now, UAE probably has 10-15% tax on personal and corporate income. They'll do it in small increments so people barely notice it.
Portugal has already scrapped part of its tax program. Will what's left still be around in 15 years? A new generation of voters is coming in that's seen their neighborhoods gentrified by wealthy foreigners. Locals can't afford to live in certain areas anymore. Will they vote to push the political landscape towards removing programs that are meant to attract such wealthy foreigners?
Switzerland already considers you tax resident based on what you think. You can become tax resident simply by going to Switzerland with the intention of staying there.
15 years is a long time. Looking forward to reading this thread in 2038.